Earth Essences.Com

From spillovers to Disease X, how AI will rank viruses with greatest pandemic threat

A database that ranks viral threats could play a central role in the race to develop vaccines to combat the next ‘Disease X’, scientists say.

On Wednesday, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi) announced plans to turbocharge the scope and technology of the SpillOver app with a £1.5 million cash injection.

The platform – created by researchers at the University of California, Davis in the US – aims to better answer a difficult question: which pathogens pose the greatest risk to humans? 

Scientists have estimated that birds and mammals harbour roughly 1.7 million viruses, including some 700,000 with “zoonotic potential”, meaning they could spread to people. 

SpillOver aims to categorise that threat and identify “Disease X” – an as yet unknown virus with pandemic potential – before it strikes, using data from more than half a million samples taken from some 74,000 animals in 28 countries. 

‘Vaccine library’

The results will be used to prioritise investments in a library of prototype vaccines to protect against the most dangerous viral families.

“Cepi’s plan is to help the world construct a library of vaccines that are ready to be adapted against the next Disease X, within 100 days of its identification,” said Dr Melanie Saville, executive director of vaccine R&D at Cepi.

“The data we hope to gather from the SpillOver programme will allow us and our R&D partners to align and prioritise our investments, maximise the impact of our funding, and help the world stop the next pandemic before it starts.”

The new funding will be used to expand the existing SpillOver platform, which already ranks 887 viruses based on 31 indicators, to identify those most likely to make the jump from animals to humans.

Currently, the viruses with the highest ratings include Ebola and Lassa Fever, both hemorrhagic diseases, but the list also includes almost 850 previously unidentified pathogens. 

The researchers are aiming to expand the spillover database to include new risks – such as viruses that infect pets, reptiles and amphibians – and introduce artificial intelligence, which will allow more data to be analysed and enable automatic updates.  

 

Spillover: why the next pandemic may already have started© Provided by The Telegraph

“This is a critical step forward in streamlining vaccine pipelines with the power to revolutionise epidemic and pandemic preparedness,” said Prof Jonna Mazet, a professor of epidemiology and disease ecology at UC Davis working on SpillOver. 

The new partnership comes amid mounting evidence that the threat of zoonosis jumping to humans is accelerating due to urbanisation, deforestation and climate change. 

In Africa, the number of outbreaks caused by zoonotic diseases jumped by 63 per cent in the last decade, compared to the period between 2001 and 2011, while a record number of people in France have caught dengue in local transmission chains this year. 

Meanwhile scientists in Canada last month found that melting glaciers may soon expose frozen viruses that pose a threat to humans, while research published in Nature in April suggested shifting temperatures will drive a “potentially devastating” surge in new pathogens jumping between species over the next 50 years.

“More than ever, our globally connected world has made us vulnerable to the rapid spread of new zoonoses and the emergence of another pandemic disease is just a matter of time,” said Dr Saville.  

Reference: The Telegraph: Sarah Newey